Tuesday, 24 November 2009

Parippu wars

EFT correspondent reporting from Rajagiriya.

We break our silence....

So, Willy, let me and you be wipers
Of scores out with all men -- especially pipers!
And, whether they pipe us free from rats or from mice,
If we've promised them aught, let us keep our promise!


The Chena Boys and Veddha Girls have really done it this time, seems like Chena Boys and Veddha Girls can only stay together in times of war, post war seems like Veddha Girls have poured a cauldron of parippu (Dhal) over the heads of Chena Boys, there is a real and imminent threat of anti Sri Lankan / unpatriotic forces coming into power, we urge all the patriots not to take sides but rather to try and reunite the Chena Boys and Veddha Girls, otherwise its parippu for us all.

EFT

40 comments:

Sujeewa Kokawala said...

glad to have you back.

yeah, unite, but someone needs a big knock on the head, and PE may perhaps be it.

Unite, but how. gap is widening.

Unite do we have time. Clock is ticking and someone maybe waiting for orders.

Mahen you got it right. This is rotten parippu.

Sam Perera said...

What is up Mahen? I think that the good General is going to get humiliated very badly.

CASC said...

Mahen,

Welcome back from the dead !

Parippu is what we will have with a mixture of Idli, Vadai, Masala Dosai and god knows what else.

As Victor Ivan says, when one becomes a god then one must behave like a god. It is a god who has the power to dispense justice, right wrongs, and forgive and forget human indiscretions.

පංකාදු ලංකා said...

Mahen,

'Like the new name of the Blog.

This should have been the name from the beginning...but then...it would have given the game away prematurely.

Well done!

Have a good time in PukkaLand. Can we meet up? I can come to Rajagiriya to meet you no problem.

No_MESS said...

Mahen playing with Peater and Jay

太陽 said...

上班很累,摸個魚輕輕鬆鬆的逛部落..................................................

Ninja said...

Its now official that nominations will be called on Dec 17 and PE to be held in January 20s. I believe its ok to use this space as the result of next PE directly related to SL defence. Some bloggers may remember that I said "if his is the way MR wanted to treat SF I can confirm he lost one vote" and that was my quick decision from heart based on the info available 1 month ago.

Then I took a break until the speculation is over and took time to take a decision with careful thought. This analysis is based on the information available in public domains. This note is for the rational patriotic voters rather than people like panhinda, rana with his other 20+ handles and other UNP hardcore/ propaganda elements. I have to give credit for deshapluwa for his correct prediction on SF.

1.Candidates
There may be around 10 candidates and one of them will be called common candidate. Since MR is contesting from the ruling party and if there are more than two candidates, common candidate from opposition does not make sense. So we may understand common candidate means common for a few parties in opposition and not for entire opposition. It would have been nice if they could use some other name instead of common candidate which doesn't make sense and self
contradictory. Main battle will be between MR and SF. We can expect from both sides to field their own dummy candidates as well.

2.War Credit
It seems some still wondering who should get credit for war victory or who is the hero. The important thing is we should realize this is to choose our president for next 6 years and not an award selection for the war victory.

Anyway, for those who still think in lines of war victory its not hard to understand these facts. No 1 is there was a military victory. From the president to single soldier should share the credit. Namely, MR the president, GR defence sec, SF SLA commander, WK Navy commander, RG SLAF commander, STF, police, SW CDF commander then division commanders and 200,000+ troops whos names are unknown in the military front - In political front MR the president, RathnasiriW PM, BR, RohithaB, and other UPFA ministers and all their supporters - In diplomatic front DayanJ, PrasadK, PalithaK and other men. So its clear the military victory is a result of a combined team effort and not due
a single person.

Another way to look at this is ask who should you blame if we lost the war? If you blame some one when bad thing happened you better give credit to the same person when he achieved.

Ninja said...

3.MR vs SF
We may assume we need to choose between MR and SF (disregarding others if any) and analyze who is the best choice for the country. We are yet to get formal policy statement from either side. However, we don't take decisions
totally based on such a handout - its not legally binding. We consider what they say in rallies, what their past behavior and actions and who are the people surrounding them. (If you want to judge some one, one easy way is to look at who are his friends.)

4.Policy statements

This is kind of fairy stories. There are standard promises any political party include and more promises you give more marketable it is.

I am not sure what MR is going to present but I expect some out line related to development and some sort of 'solution' - so called political solution and specially a northern development plan. SF may present abolishing EP and corruption free government. Since they haven't given such statements yet I skip into other two factors.

Ninja said...

5.Career Records

MR: MR stands as the best president SL produced in post independence era and perhaps top 10 rulers in 2500 years history.

Good - He is experienced, proven able, successful, determined, brave, patriotic democratic leader. He has shown that he can identify right people, get the job done, work with even opposing party members.

Bad - Too much tolerance toward own party members when they go beyond limits.

SF: SF is new comer with maximum two months experience as a politician when PE is held. He is not tested. Last 40 years he was trained and practiced taking orders from above and passing them down. He was proven good general -
however, doing great in one filed doesn't imply you do well in another field - politics. Further, we are not seeking a man for another military offensive with any party.

Good - He is determined.

Bad -
Its well known that SF doesn't talk to WK. Such an attitude is not of any great human - not definitely for a leader or team
player. I believe its GR's great coordination that made tri-forces combination a wining team.

He sent SamanthaS who failed in Muhamale while he sent home ParakramaP who took Thoppigala. PP was accused of stealing 800 rupees worth furniture from army and also accused of treasury stealing but proved innocent in court. His issue was with PrasannaS then SF commander also well known. This shows in general he has problem with working people and personal choice comes before treating the talent.

He was a confident commander but totally opposite as a politician. He wanted 48 hours to answer a
question and he couldn't keep his promise either.

I think its VP's ego that finally broght his death at NDKL lagoon. SF always talk about I, me, my, mine and thats not a good quality. SF's ego is such that he wanted to go above even GR the def sec and MR the president. The infamous Muhamale 'army only' attack proves how disastrous could be his ego driven projects.

Its said he has a problem saluting and calling sir to GR, his boss simply becuz GR was his junior when he was in SLA. This kind of ego level tarnish his discipline even as a soldier. If he can't understand the fact that he as a soldier must respect def sec who is now a civilian irrespective of he is your junior in a different system then this man is not in right mind.

SF had an opportunity to show how committed he is toward anti-corruption by vacating his official residence soon after he retired - Instead man was crying for house. It was him who asked for resignation and he has no proper house to live in SL. If he couldn't plan for his families own future, I mean a basic thing like a place to live after retirement, how he is going to solve problems of other people?

A man betray his own friends who pave the way for his success, who protected him all alone and join with his enemies who once insulted him to serve us..? I don't believe people in SL are so much lucky to have leaders like that.

For me, I don't want a foreign citizen, even a GC holder to be president of my country.

[I believe its the responsibility of the GSL provide sufficient security for any citizen including SF. However, its determined only by defence authorities and not by individual himself. I hope GSL has provided sufficient security and unfortunately there is only one way to prove defence ministry is wrong.]

Ninja said...

6.Their Teams
MR is with clearly patriotic team. He has every one who was with him all alone all the PC elections.

SF is with anti-SL, anti-nationalistic camp and US embassy is clearly behind him.

7.Accusations

Against MR there are only 4 major accusations.
1. Mervin Silva: Its non other than CBK now sitting with UNP who appointed MS as a MP via national list after he came last in the list. MR can't remove any MP from parliament. For some reason MR is not interested removing people from his party (CBK, MAngalaS, are still members.) Only thing MR can do is removing him from minister post which may result in joining him UNP. There is no guarantee that Mervin will not join UNP led government in such a case.

2. 100+ ministers: In this system any MP can change sides without losing his seat. Thus any president has to satisfy all of them and only way is giving some portfolios. This will be the case for any president and this cannot be avoided unless we have a military rule or change law. Its highly unlikely any MP voting to give up his chance to change side without losing seat.

3.Family rule/ Sahodara samagama: Any president will chose his team and nothing to complain they are relatives provided work is done.

4. Corruption: For any government this charge is valid. If you check outside world you will see military juntas are more corrupted than democratic ones.

5. EP: All oppositions protest against EP since LalithA. Cycle is you promise to abolish it when you in opposition and when you come to power you will find you don't have 2/3 to do so and cycle continues.

Unless you were born after 1985 I believe rest will consider all these accusations as 'minor'.

We expect no accusations against SF as he is brand new politico but the main accusation seems his 20/20 commission for DanunaT. SF did right thing by filing a case so that media can't talk about it anymore and we know court can't rule it within days. Next is about LasanthW, UpaliT, KiethN (media attacks).

Ninja said...

8.What IF
IF MR wins there wont be any thing different. Then UPFA will get 120+ for sure in GE, we will get another 100 minsters depending on how voters do on preferential and hence a stable ruling party will be there for next 6 years. This may facilitate economic development while his extended family will do as they do now. SF will probably go to Oklohoma, UNP's eternal leader will contest for GE.

If SF wins what will happen no one knows. If I asked from 10 SF supporters I will get 10 different scenarios.

According to UNP he will abolish EP and will become ceremonial president within 180 days. After that I don't know what difference is there for him compared to his jobless CDS position. I also, don't know why any one votes for him abolish EP and become jobless person and how this sacred hero can control corruption by giving up all the powers. OTOH, there is no known legal way to do so unless UNP has 2/3 and in such case what he will do is totally his choice and its unknown.

According to JVP RW cannot be PM. It takes usually months JVP to set up an alliance and days to break from it. In this case their unofficial marriage can break up within seconds.

Since SF is not a member of any known party he is not bound even by party constitution. Even now the EP can be controlled somehow via his own party and that space for democracy too will vanish.

According to my UNP friends its basically going to UNP government.

According some other his supporters SF is going to kick out ManoG etc and colonize north with SLA families and military sort of rule will be there.

My guess is, since the the only reason SF coming to politics is his ego plus power greediness and as the hindrance is MR/GR he will remove both of them from big picture. I don't see any genuine plan he has toward country apart from borrowed UNP/INGO vocabulary and Its not hard to see his intention of revenge from 1.GR, 2.MR, 3.WK, 4.JJ and their SLA men.

In either case, we can expect political instability in SL for a long time. Since the only common thing the sponsors of common candidate have is the objective of removing MR after results released nothing common will be there. If UNP get power via SF we can expect JVP to go for mass protests against privatization, private universities, power devolution, federal etc and thereby reduce sinhala youth by another 50,000. This will give USA and western powers more control over SL and any India/China players may make it even worse.

9.Vote Distribution and some Remarks

SF will get 30% UNP island wide vote base. This is the vote base who will vote (we say) even for "polpiththa" contesting from UNP. Muslim votes in general are for UNP and we can assume they get those as well. Tamil votes may be reduced by 50% even if UNP get the support from TNA,CWC etc. However, fielding a separate tamil candidate may prevent those votes being end up in MR's ballot box. Some new voters too may vote for a 'change' - I am not sure how many. SF may attract those who left UNP due to its anti-war plus federal stance. Any UNP voter get more confidence to vote for SF instead of their serial loser. Those who were victims of anti-MR (LNW type) propaganda, who became recent haters of MR, and JVP 200,000 vote base who in general hate the society will vote for SF.

For MR, thus his vote base will be reduced from 70% and probably will settle around 60%.

10.Conclusion

When war was there almost all sinhalese supported SLDF and that doesn't imply all of them support or have to support the ruling party. 30% of people are 'kapuwath kola' and among English speaking society and internet users its around 60%.

Its SF's right to contest any election or do politics. Nothing wrong with that and its upto people to decide their future. We need free and fare election and its the decision of people. Finally, people believe what they want to believe - I will vote for MR and If people wants SF, so be it.

Ruvini said...

Check out this new great site:

http://premstory.com/default.aspx

DECOY said...

Ninja,

Excellent analysis. Mahen, I think you should post this on your home page as an eye opener to all the fools who are blindly backing the candidacy of SF at the PE.

Ali said...

This fucking country is a democracy isnt it . and isnt that what we fought for and won . If the people are convinced SF is a better leader so be it , if they are convinced MR is the solution so be it . Great Generals the world over have huge egos . wars are not won by pencil pushers or politicians . Politicians always start the war . SF is the greatest General seen by Sri Lanka . to compare him to Denzil or any body else is a joke . people like Denzil as popular as he may be only won a few battles , He did not face the LTTE at full pomp and dismantle it . All these issues SF has with the other Generals is common stuff in any bureaucracy .
Even if SF does not win he will give it is good run . and scare the govt shitless to govern without corruption (one hopes) lol

and may be who knows he will be a prez some other day .

I take no sides in this argument , let the Sri Lankans decide what is best for them . this is why so many brave men laid their lives on the line .

Viva democracy Vivi Sri Lanka

Sam Perera said...

So much for the media freedom Ranil and Fonseka talk about. What a great start.

Sam Perera said...

War hero Sarath Fonseka is reaching another new low point by teaming up with the top scum of Sri Lanka. This is the same scum who ridiculed the army and Fonseka himself. Most of the scum who hated Fonseka with a passion, are now getting Fonseka to dance to their tunes. My Fonseka survive in this low class act of teaming up with Jaathiye Paahara Ballo to destroy our Motherland.

Udara Gamalath said...

It is hard to stop politicos playing their usual game whenever elections are due. Sri Lankan public must be intelligent enough now to choose wisely. Sarath Fonseka must have played politics while in the uniform too.

Ninja said...

Looks like DW blog having problems. Mahen also seems abandoned the blog. Hpw about bloging here anyway?

Ninja said...

Can MR lose?

In other words can SF wins?

Mahinda Rajapaksha 4,887,152--50.29%
Ranil Wickramasinghe 4,706,366--48.43%

Difference = 180786

Its true that MR has 26 lax lead based on PC results. However, most floating voters who are biased toward UNP didn't vote in PC elections. This is true for any PC/local election as there will not be change in government many voters don't bother to vote, specially the opposition party supporters. If one predict PE results based on PC results hence he will be simply wrong. In other words past PC results are simply irrelevant.

One difference compared to last PE is switching of CWC and JVP. As both have around 2 lax votes that will be a cancellation.

Given the new candidate we can expect almost all other voters who voted for RW to vote SF. But the same is not true for MR. Due to the successful UNP propaganda some may vote for SF or may not vote for any one. Thus its likely MR not getting all the votes he got in 2005.

There are two new voter categories. NE tamils and brand new young voters. We expect 50-50 division.

It seems SF has eaten well UNP vote base and there is potential threat SF eating UPFA vote base as well. JHU need to work overtime to prevent this. If SF can get TNA/CWC/pilliyan support too he may win.

Final result is going to be tight one with 50% +/- for MR/SF.

Sam Perera said...

Latest Lanka News Web Opinion Poll conducted by TOSSIE and PUSSIE.

Mahinda Rajapakse -67.7%
Sarath Fonseka +353.2%
Ranil Wickramasinghe +543.21%

According to this survey done by Lanka News Wes and LTTE intel, Ranil's popularity is over Jupiter now. MR's only hope is the gravitational pull of Saturn. We are winning this baby, we are winning.

Sam Perera said...

This is how Sunday Times sing in support of Jaathiye Paahara Ballo.

Sam Perera said...

All,

There is a new and more dynamically maintained forum at http://srilankadefenceforum.blogspot.com/

Sam Perera said...

All,

There is a new and more dynamically maintained forum at http://srilankadefenceforum.blogspot.com/

Ananda-USA said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Ninja said...

Seems DW got so upset their highly respected general becoming another clown kukka and seems abandoned their blog. But whats with mahen? He usually talk about ladies, gals, and pork and even he is mia..!

Anyway, can some one explain howw come DW blog got problems such displaying number of comments and actual number of comments in different numbers, getting error page etc.

Also can we know who runs the new blog, I mean which bloggers?

Mahen said...

Chena Boys and Veddha Girls,

We are still here, await a detailed update from EFT correspondent who has just returned from Malabe.

DoDo said...

We are still here, await a detailed update from EFT correspondent who has just returned from Malabe.

Still on way in 170 athurugiriya-pitakotuwa bus. poddak inna :)

Moshe Dyan said...

guys,

get on the new blog in town.

until DW comes to life

http://srilankadefenceforum.blogspot.com/

Sujeewa Kokawala said...

Confessions of an Economic Hitman entire book can be found in electronic format.

CASC said...

US Senate Report on Sri Lanka

link to the original US Senate report calling for a more conciliatory attitude towards Sri Lanka. There are 200,000 Sri Lankans in the USA and the US politicians have finally taken note of their concerns.

Its an interesting document. It looks like the document was compiled
by two senate staffers who travelled to Sri Lanka and interviewed numerous people. One of the staffers has a Sinhalese name.

"Sri Lanka is an important partner and friend to the United
States, so we asked two of our Senate Foreign Relations Committee
(SFRC) staff members, Fatema Z. Sumar and Nilmini Gunaratne Rubin, to evaluate U.S. policy towards Sri Lanka."

Thank you Nilmini Gunaratne Rubin for doing your part for Sri Lanka.

Many Sri Lankan officials quoted in the report have asked the US to change its irrational attitude towards Sri Lanka. Ranil Wickremasinghe is the only one
who seems to have gone out of his way to poison the minds of the ivestigators with the intention of
sabotaging Sri Lanka's interests.

"Many Sri Lankan Government officials seemed surprised by the
barrage of international criticism and intense public scrutiny they
received following the war. They had expected instead praise for
defeating a notorious terrorist group—which pioneered suicide
bombing techniques and assassinated Indian Prime Minister Rajiv
Ghandi in 1991 and Sri Lankan President Ranasinghe Premadasa
in 1993—and space to make the transition to a post-conflict environment.

Opposition leaders take a different view. United National Party and opposition leader Ranil Wickremesinghe said the United States was on the right track in publishing the ‘‘Incidents Report’’ and should ‘‘keep the pressure on the government.’’ Wikremesinghe said
Sri Lankans did not want to lose their relationship with the United
States, and the Goverment’s criticism of recent U.S. remarks was
‘‘complete nonsense.’’

CASC said...

Sorry link did not work correctly. Please cut and paste.


http://foreign.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/SRI.pdf

Ananda-USA said...

DefenceWire Bloggers,

As DefenceWire is down and is not being maintained by DW, we have created a replacement open blog at SriLankaDefenceForum.

When you get tired of blogging at EllanForce, you can blog at SriLankaDefenceForum too!

See you there!

PS: Blogger No_Mess .. Thanks for pointing out the hyperlink error in my previous post here!

Ananda-USA said...

Ninja said ...

[Also can we know who runs the new blog, I mean which bloggers?]

Ananda-USA, Konappu Bandara, Moshe Dayan, Sam Perera and Sujeewa Kokawala are the Admins of SriLankaDefenceForum .

More admins will be added as the need arises.

CASC said...

Repairing SL- US relations: The senate foreign relations committee report By Dayan Jaystilleka

AngeloNevillePeiris said...

Friends,

EllanForce seems to be dead and Sri Lanka Defence Forum seems to be dead.

As a fan of Defencewire I am going to make once last attempt to revive our little community which was unique because it was completely unregulated by the Defencewire group especially after March of this year.


I have created a temporary blog called Defencewire Temporary. This is a temporary and completely unregulated blog with no administrators for fans of Defencewire. There will be no topics or editorial comments. The only administrative support that I will provide will be to ensure that comments don't reach the volume that they reached in Defencewire and caused it to crash.

Post as you wish. The blog will be shut down promptly once Defencewire comes back to life again.

DefencewireTemporary: A temporary unregulated blog with no administrators for fans of
Defencewire



Cheers

Angelo

Ananda-USA said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Ananda-USA said...

AngeloNevillePeiris said ...

[Sri Lanka Defence Forum seems to be dead]

NOT TRUE! In which world is the SriLankaDefenceForum dead?

It is ALIVE, WELL and THRIVING, at
http://SriLankaDefenceForum.blogspot.com

Sujeewa Kokawala said...

Sri Lanka Defence Forum is very much alive. We're into the 300s of comments of latest post and getting them updated very often. We are writing posts at slow pace since we want the forum and discussion not being hindered by changing posts.

Nor is Mahen's as far as we see. The delays in response in common for Mahen, and it does NOT mean that EF is dead.

Neville, we respect your right for a blog, and we can promise our visiting if it is a worthy place to be. But stop hypocrisy and cheap marketing.

No MESS said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
No MESS said...
This comment has been removed by the author.