Wednesday, 24 December 2008

Kilinochchi & the IDP Crisis

In a recent email interview with the BBC Sinhala Service Mr Nadesan, head of Thamil Eelaam Political Wing indicated that Kilinochchi may need to be given up at this stage. However he vowed that the LTTE will continue defending its motherland regardless.

This could come as somewhat of a discouragement to citizens of Thamil Eelaam, to those who support the LTTE and look up to Kilinochchi as their capital city. However tactical manoeuvres are expected when battles such as these are on going. Commanders on the ground are capable of assessing the situation and taking the best course of action.

The main cause for concern is the IDP population who are made vulnerable due to SLDF aggression. The LTTE are fully committed to provide safety and security to their citizens. There are some indications, though unreliable, that some IDP’s are crossing over to GOSL held areas as the conditions become difficult. GOSL propaganda has been saying this for months now, though grossly exaggerated. LTTE are actively encouraging the citizens of Thamil Eelaam not to desert their nation when their nation needs them most.

As confrontations rage nearer and nearer to Kilinochchi & Mulathivu, it does indicate that Thamil Eelaam land area has been invaded and the LTTE are no longer in control of the historic Thamil Eelaam land mass. An “unceasing waves” type counter attack is believed to be the only way to regain the lost ground and this is expected soon. According to sources close to LTTE military strategy panel this monumental counter attack is expected to be on land, sea and air.

39 comments:

Bhairav said...

Well, when the SLA opened # of fronts in Wanni, the current LTTE leaders started to live off from their past success stories likes of JeyaSikkuru battles.

They used one too many tactical withdrawals from the day one of Wanni battles, now they blame IDP crisis for Kili failure.

It's sad to see our youth-boys and girls- get killed for nothing.

FreedomFighter said...

What Nadasan said was intreeting at this specific time. Only the commanders on the ground know how
best to tackle the invasion.

There lots of possible reason for these statments. Would not eleberate on those to much.

FreedomFighter said...

May of our people to see the LTTE actions are based on their
confident about their stength
and tacticts. They have lot of experiance of success and failures in battle fields. Thats what made them more successful.

At the moment what is happeing in
war now is blood-letting of SLA.
This not just sla blood but its
recsources as well.

When that is done LTTE will show its true stength using its
offencive forces.

Mahen said...

Bhairav, FF,

You are both right.

It is a little concerning that the counter attack has not started yet. We can't afford to loose too much ground or personnel. There are sufficient stockpiles of hardware, but time and fighters are not something LTTE have in abundance right now.

FreedomFighter said...

LTTE has won before will win eelam for tamils. No question about that
in my mind.

I think we have to destroy SLA morale to fight when SLA tell the people they have 15000 missing in action people will undertsnad the situdation they want have will to fight. thats already happens thats why they are using child soldirs, forcing labrours to fight.

More and more SLA must be killed and wounded. This will turn war arround. Last few weeks has already done.

Mahen said...

Let us not be conceited. The SLDF has a huge strength, albeit soldiers who work for a pay packet (not for a cause like the LTTE fighters). Therefore it would take some time and an overwhelming counter attack to reduce their numbers sufficiently to create an unfavourable public opinion.

That is why I am concrened that the counter offensive is too slow in materialising.

According to reliable sources, SLDF morale is also high due to full GOSL backing and false propaganda. For example, slumping fuel prices are not passed on to the Sri Lankan people in order to fund the offensive against Thamil Eelaam.

In short, too many things are going GOSL's way right now. We must pull something impressive out of the bag before long in order to turn the tables. We have done it before and we can do it again. My information is that our leaders are on the verge of executing this.

thiru said...

fully agrre with you mahen that the counter attack must start soon....the loss of killinochi will b monumental if it happens....it will be a huge marale bosst to the sldf and bring down the morale of the citizens of thamil eelam, the ltte fighters and the diaspora....in addition to this reality, the fall of paranthan and killinochi would leave elephant pass vulnerable where the 53,55,57,58 and task force 1 can all attack it simultaneously....this war has come to a decisive stage and in my opinion the counter attack can't be delayed much longer.

NOLTTE=Peace said...

How about your barbaric and stupid Thalaivar (he killed all the right-minded Tamil intellectuals to call himself the Talaivar -may be Thalaivar who drives Tamils to extinction), release all the IDPs?

Then there won't be any IDP crisis.

LTTE = Leading Tamils Towards Extinction

NOLTTE=Peace said...

Both your leader and followers are the biggest morons (it is an insult to morons)on this earth.

Your racist, tribal, destructive and war mentality has caused 30 years of misery and destruction in Sri Lanka. You morons still believe in Tamil Homeland (a bulsh*t itself), which has no utility whatsoever in the modern world.

Your stone-age mentality and inward thinking is prolonging this mass destruction (mainly the very Tamil Society itself). For you morons who lives overseas, this is a nice game to cheer about. But it is not so same for the victims.

Sinhalese have accepted Tamils to the island and have let them live for many years. We lived in harmony until your stupid politicians started the whole racist agenda. Do not forget we still go to Hindu Kovils...Still we buy from Tamil traders (even after you have killed thousands of Sinhalese civilians mainly on tribal terms)... Sinhalese would love to live in Sri Lanka as Sri Lankans, working towards building a better country. But your tribal morons, it is not an option.

Take a moment.. analyse what you are doing to your fellow beings by promoting a totally stupid phenomena. Develop your own independent mind -analyse and find out what is right and wrong. Do you want your fellow Tamils in Sri Lanka to destroy their future and lay in bunkers biting dust and being toasted by MBRLs? Think long.. Think about what you would achieve.

thiru said...

Mahen, the latest is that the army is now 5km away from mullathivu and killi, wat is ur opinion on this situation? wat do u think is the next move because the ltte is dangerously getting into a cornered situation, the leaders must have a plan no doubt which none of us will know before it happens but what is ur general opinion and take on the outlook?

Shyam said...

According to ma knowledge the Counter attack will be start when the the SLA reaches the Oddisuttan till then LTTE keeps on fighting in Defensive mode .. when the move in the eastern and western flanks comes to a hold or it become very slow the government forces have to move towards the Oddisuttan because thats the Only place where they can move easily and LTTE withdraw from Omanthai to Oddisuttan and build new FDLs there ......

Mahen said...

@ Thiru 5905,

I am not sure if you are the right Thiru or a fake one. But as far as your comments are concerned; the picture is not as grim as you paint it. Yes we need a quick and successful counter attack. There are however, limitted successes on the field. Eg. I have received reports of success from Chinnaparanthan. GOSL propaganda confirms this.

Bhairav said...

I believe LTTE has already attempted many counter-attacks, but due to the limited success, they hardly reveal it.

My point of view, LTTE can't sustain these multiple war fronts, sooner or later they have to abandon them. What they need is 10,000+ fresh legs and some strategic weapons, and it will take another 3 to 6 months. Meantime, many things will work against LTTE favor for next 6 months if Kili falls in the following days or weeks.

NOLTTE=Peace said...

Guys,

Talk about how to build the country and the livelihoods of its peoples.

Talking about where the next counter attack comes is nonsense, because the next wave that LTTE brings would be devastating to all the Tamil people in Vanni.

Now LTTE has started giving weapons training to all those who sat for GCE O/Ls this year. You guys may think 'wow nice!', another 8000 to defend our Thalevar's sorry arse. But what it means. Out of that 8000, at least 6000 will go and bite dust. A generation of Vanni children would be lost.

You guys have to accept this. The EELAM is outdated and dead! It does not do any good to anyone at all. More you live in the EELAM myth, more you will destroy the livelihoods (mainly Tamil livelihoods).

Keep pushing War! You will see what salt you got at the end!

ReJLoRd said...

A counter attack is sure in the books and tigers are just waiting for the opportune moment because in any counter attack, many fighters will lay down their lives.

The current situation is pretty tight. the army is just going at kili with no other worry in mind. they are willing to lose even 10 000 troops if they have to get kili.

kili is a huge morale booster on both sides. if kili is captured its no good. but let us all not forget that in war, things turn around really fast. our support forour fighters has to be strong no matter what happens.

let us wait patiently for oyatha alaigal 4. when it comes, its gonna be a fucking tsunami on the sinhaloids.
viva la Eelam

thiru said...

mahen, this is me the real thiru, and thank you for ur reply....i have noticed that the fake pansy thiru visits and posts some crap occasionally, do not fall for his trap, in his profile it says he is residing in isreal.....anyways, ur analysis is really good as is rejlord's, i completely beleive we have to be behind our leaders and in no way am i going against them by raising these concerns, i have supported the cause of eelam since i can remember as i believe that is the only option for tamils to live with peace and respect....however as i pointed out earlier my concern is that the ltte fighters, leaders and idp's are confined in a small area especially if killi falls, if this happens they're only base will be mullathivu and EP and if killi falls EP will be extremely vulnerable, u can remember the tigers had killi and paranthan before attacking EP....now all this aside i still have faith that our leaders will not let killi fall at any cost, Nadesan has just stated yesterday that there is no need to kill the sla anywhere else except in killi to achieve eelam as there is such a high concentration there, this is perhaps indicating an imminent counterstrike, the sources here in Canada are indicating the same thing that a massive strike is imminent in vanni and on an economical target. Any thoughts from anyone?

NOLTTE=Peace said...

As the other cities fell,
Killi also will fall. Another 10000 of both sides (about 8000 proscribed Tamil youth and family men would be in there] will die.

You guys are safe in Canada and elsewhere and promote war. For three decades, you guys did not have any feeling whatsoever about scores of people getting killed for this mythical Eelam -the concept which has been created out of lies, fraud, and brain-washing in naive Tamils' minds.

Keep pushing war and Terrorism, and destruct the very Tamil roots you have in Sri Lanka.

thiru said...

NOLTTE=PEACE, you should go fuk urself, there is a reason why we are forced to live in canada and other places around the world, it's ur government that raped our women, burnt villages, imposed the singhala-only act and instigated numerous riots in which tamils were slaughtered on the streets, so before u come hear and try to preach ur modhaya intelligence to us, u should go suck on mahinda mama's ballz and ask him the true situation of ur youth in the vanni....how many of ur youths are returning back in body bags and maimed, remember that there is a reason that 20000 men and women laid down their lives for a seperate eelam, u think that we live here not remembering the utmost sacrifices of our brothers and sisters, there isn't a second of th day that we don't think abt it unlike ur racist population in the south who have their own political agenda's and send poor villager's sons to the battlefield to get slaughtered....soooo go fuk urself and preach ur baseless shit in DW and DN!

Sunesun said...

Shyam, thanks for that info. But should you post this kind of 'sensitive information' from the field commanders. So Oddusudan is the key.. Singalams won't know what hit them. Are the field commanders getting ready to tactically withdraw from Elephant Pass, Paranthan, Killi, Mulathivu and other strategically non-important places? Please keep us updated.

NOLTTE=Peace said...

Oh Thiru,

You are showing the true self of LTTE terrorists...

Even if you went to Tamilnadu, you will not get 'Tamil Only'..!

So, keep sacrificing young lives (another 20,000? or 100,000 or 1M? what is the figure?)...

You will achieve Eelam!

Look inside and think what is the real meaning of life.. !

You will realise that all your Eelam is meaningless as sh*t!

thiru said...

nomahinda=peace, go preach ur budhist shit to ur fellow modhayas, whether u want to admit it or not the eelam struggle will achieve it's goal and modhayas will suffer the consequences and economically be fuked and depend on eelam's economy for their very survival!

wijayapala said...

Dear Mahen & other LTTE bootlickers,

Please comment on the following news:

Pottu Amman relieved of duties
(I was hoping it would be "Pottu Amman relieved of constipation")

wijayapala said...

NoFake,

It seems that Mahen and others here disagree with your view that there's no need for a counteroffensive:

In short, too many things are going GOSL's way right now. We must pull something impressive out of the bag before long in order to turn the tables.

Reposted from the previous thread:

"Hope now you understand why LTTE is beginning to offer proper resistance near Kili, Paranthan and Mullaitivu axis."

I'm afraid you haven't made your case. The LTTE had traditionally hit early and hard in combat, overrunning Mullaitivu only 3 months after losing Thenmaradchi in 1996 and launching Unceasing Waves III only a month after stopping the SLA's Op. Watershed in 1999. What you seem to be suggesting is that the LTTE is ineffective fighting along multiple fronts and can only begin to resist when it is pushed far back to where its interior lines are shortened.

"Stalingrad similarity is in defensive forces inveigling an offensive force and destroying it."

...and hopefully not getting the defensive forces destroyed in the process as well, right?

"25000 soldiers of SLA couldnt save EPS from 3000 LTTE cadres."

There were 10000 soldiers at EPS, not 25000, and they had already been heavily demoralized by the failures of JS and Rana Ghosha and the LTTE's initial victories in Unceasing Waves III. And as I pointed out before, the key to destroying 54 Division was isolating it.

The SLA of today is simply not the SLA of the 1990s, however much you want it to be. The vast gap between the recruitment rate today and back then proves that point.

The LTTE of today is also not the LTTE of 1990s. No Balraj or Karuna this time.

"TF-1 reaching EPS is near impossibility, let alone capturing and holding it. You are more than welcome to differ in your opinion."

As are you.

"Canvassing tamil nadu and india has longer term objectives. Force Delhi's hand tied with "cannot interfere in another countries local affairs" when the war turns the tide."

Your second sentence did not make much sense. The last thing the GoSL wants is Indian interference.

"I hear thadsanamaruthamadu attack on school bus was well received in T-nadu."

...and what was the result in TN??? How come there was no similar propaganda campaign in TN during the 1990s?

"LTTE's LRRP/DPU operational successes are too numerous to list here. Why dont you start with Kobbekaduwa and list all LTTE attacks in south till AAB attack."

I didn't know that you wanted to go all the way back to 1992 in listing the glories of the Liberation Heroes. This is why I don't understand your double standards- you harp eloquent on the LTTE's victories in the 1990s, but when I point out that the LTTE does not have the same factors of success today you argue against using the lessons of history.

I was thinking of just the last 2 years. The LTTE DPUs' achievements have mostly involved killing unarmed civilians like Kethesh Loganathan and the Hindu priest at Vaharai. They have not carried out enough AAB-style attacks to establish a momentum against the SLA offensive or to demoralize the SLA.

Now that you mention the LRRPs, I now wonder whether they have forced LTTE commanders to take security precautions that are limiting their ability to lead from the front and take the initiative. Of course, that is mere speculation to explain the fact that the LTTE has yielded the initiative in favor of static defenses where commanders can more easily control their forces.

"If the captured territory in wanni is not witnessing LTTE DPU attacks, you should be alarmed, they are collecting intelligence."

Forgive me if I save my alarm for the actual attack. Mahen with his insider knowledge had predicted that the LTTE would retake Nachchikuda by Nov 27th.

"SLA having larger proportion of recruits, who believed the govt propaganda is good for the LTTE. They will be the first to run away when going gets tough."

I already explained the SLA's rotation system which disproves your notion that its (nonexistent) "elite" units are getting replaced by raw recruits.

"So LTTE perhaps in its peculiar ways have been aiding GOSL propaganda by not demonstrating its power like it did in Jayasikuru."

There is nothing peculiar about the LTTE simply lacking the ability to fight back. You're looking for a convoluted LTTE strategy of deception and misdirection where none exists.

Contrary to what many believe, the best strategies are not those which have to be concealed from the enemy to be effective. The best strategies are those which require minimal if any internal security/secrecy, **because the enemy lacks the ability to counter that strategy**.

The LTTE did not jump its strategy around in the 1990s. It had clearly established its offensive and defensive doctrine by early 1994. Its efforts during JS were largely an outgrowth of how it resisted Op. Yal Devi 3 years earlier. The groundwork for the Unceasing Waves offensives was laid in the Pooneryn attack in 1993. The SLA became familiar with this doctrine through mass casualties but lacked the leadership to adapt.

Sunesun said...

fully agrre with you mahen that the counter attack must start soon.

'The' Counter-Attack? How long have you been waiting? It ain't coming.. wake up and smell the coffee. Once the artillery shells run out your heroes will be sitting ducks. So my dear friends don't deceive yourselves.. I am sure some of you are smart enough to figure out - this is the end for the LTTE. Only question is how many innocent Tamils will be 'recruited' and made cannon fodder before the end?

Peter said...

Mahen, I have reliable information that Mr.Nadesan's interview to BBC is a clever ploy to fool the GOSL to getting complacent. While the modayas are all concentrating their efforts and hopes to capture our capitol, Black Tigers, Radha Regiment and Imran Pandiya Brigade are now fully set to mount a counter attack which will drive the SLA all the way to Mavil Aru. Just be patient and wait a little longer brother. (As it is we have waited 2 years for this counter attack, so waiting another few months or years should be nothing for us)

Jet said...



Sudden changes in moda army higher positions

Sudden changes in moda army higher positions have been done at a time, the military activities are advanced with an accurate resolution was stated. Such changes would be in force from January 1st 2009.
On this category, Jaffna Military Commanding Chief, Major General G.A. Chandrasiri, who had been functioning for the past period, is transferred to Colombo and his vacant position is substituted by Major General Manthaka Samarasinghe.

Unexpected changes too have occurred in the military higher positions in the 52nd army battalion. But the reasons for the changes were not known.

Jet said...

moda Sunesun

you have no idea what is coming

Jet said...



Nadesan

"We will teach a good lesson to the forces in this Kilinochchi battle,"

"We are waiting for the time, place and setting to launch a offensive."

"Our military capabilities are intact and we have no difficulties in acquiring weapons,"

"We have confidence and we will regain the swathes of land."

remember these words modaya

Jet said...



"From previous operations, the army learnt it the hard way. Battalions of infantrymen advancing into LTTE-held territory could be disastrous. Hence, a different strategy of small groups of elite forces is using now. But, in the southern neck of the peninsula and Killinochchi fronts, this tactics could be also a graveyard for Sinhala youths, which was proved in this week.

The Sinhala people of this country have been the targets of a sustained propaganda barrage claiming that everything was hunky-dory for the regime in the ongoing war against the LTTE. But the recent battle shows that it is a bubble and it will burst in any time. The Sinhala people need to be Pay attention regarding the government false propaganda or Pay the price"

Jet said...



peccko says

Latest SMS spam to phones in SL:

"Women soldier vacancies exist in the volunteer force of S. Lankan army.Application close on 31st December. Contact 0602188558"

May be A'sthree' should apply :-D





time for moda sinhala keyboard hero ladies to join up & feel the kiss of death

Jet said...



oh !!

praba injured

http://tinyurl.com/6tfm3l

Jet said...



many kissed killinochchi

bodies are still coming to sinhala land

some don't want to kiss

on holdiay, no return

more criminals

lolz

Peter said...

Lol! Looks like the moda Banda faker has stolen the Kili image as well.

Anyway,

I think there will be a shift in strategy in 2009.

Sri Lanka's strong point is the number of soldiers they can amass; weak point in the economy.

LTTE has taken so many bases from Yarl Koddai to Anaiyiravu, and SLA never gave up. More than 1,000 SLA were killed in Mulaiteevu and a whole division was wiped out at EPS.

Compare that to the results of a KAB attack. That year, SL economy went into recession and Sinhala had no choice but to come to negotiating table.

I see 2009 being a year of war not in Vanni but in Western province. I think, LTTE will attack all and every economic target it possibly could.

These kinds of attacks need less man power and more money. That suits the LTTE, because its weakpoint is man-power. Assuming, of course, that the Diaspora see this shift in strategy and continue to be generous with their donations.

Jet said...



moda army has moved large number of soldiers from jaffna to vanni to fill the moda army shortage in vanni

Jaffna is a target

Jet said...



ஒபாமா அரசில் இலங்கை விடயத்தை பில் கிளின்டனே இனிக் கையாள்வாராம்: கணவரை நியமிக்க ஹிலாரி முடிவு

அமெரிக்காவின் புதிய வெளிவிவகார அமைச்சராகப் பதவியேற்கவிருக்கும் ஹிலாரி கிளின்டன் அம்மையார், இந்தியா,பாகிஸ்தான், இலங்கை போன்ற நாடுகளை உள்ளடக்கிய இந்திய உபகண்டப் பிரதேசத்தின் பிரச்சினைகளைக் கையாள்வதற்கான தமது பிரதிநிதியாகத் தமது கணவரும் முன்னாள் ஜனாதிபதியுமான பில் கிளின்டனின் பெயரைப் பிரேரித்திருக்கின்றார் எனக் கூறப்படுகின்றது.

அமெரிக்காவின் புதிய ஜனாதிபதியாக எதிர்வரும் 20 ஆம் திகதி பராக் ஒபாமா பதவியேற்கும் சமயத்தில் புதிய வெளிவிவகார அமைச்சராக ஹிலாரி கிளிண்டன் பொறுப்பேற்பார்.

அவர், சர்வதேச ரீதியான இராஜதந்திரப் பிரச்சினைகளைத் தீர்ப்பதற்காக இராஜதந்திரிகள் அடங்கிய செயலணி ஒன்றை உருவாக்கி வருகின்றார் என்று கூறப்படுகின்றது.

இந்திய உபகண்டப் பிரதேசம் பெரும் பதற்றத்துக்கும் மோதலுக்கும் இடமாகியுள்ளதால் அமெரிக்காவின் சார்பில் இப்பிராந்தியப் பிரச்சினைகளைக் கையாள்வதற்கு தேர்ந்த இராஜதந்திரி ஒருவர் தேவைப்படுகின்றார் என ஹிலாரி கருதுகின்றார் என்றும்,

எட்டு வருடங்கள் ஜனாதிபதியாக இருந்து பல்வேறு சர்வதேசப் பிரச்சினைகளை வெற்றிகரமாகக் கையாண்ட அனுபவஸ்தரான தமது கணவர் பில் கிளின்டனே இதற்குப் பொருத்தமானவர் எனக் கருதி அவரின் பெயரை ஹிலாரி பிரேரித்துள்ளார் என்றும் கூறப்படுகின்றது.

இதேசமயம், ஆழிப்பேரலை அனர்த்த நிவாரணப் பணிகளைக் கண்காணிப்பதற்கு ஐ.நாவின் பொதுச் செயலாளரின் விசேட பிரதிநிதியாக இலங்கைக்குப் பல தடவைகள் வந்து சென்றுள்ள பில் கிளிண்டன், அதன் காரணமாக இலங்கை இனப்பிரச்சினை தொடர்பில் நன்கு பரிச்சயமாகி, விடயங்களை ஏற்கனவே நன்கு புரிந்து கொண்டவர் என்று விடயமறிந்த வட்டாரங்கள் தெரிவித்தன.

NOLTTE=Peace said...

Jet is spamming this blog too with his bold comments.

Seems like a childhood deprived, attention-seeker who has been molested by his LTTE Unlce.

Jet said...



Sri Lanka Air Force (SLAF) Kfir fighter jets bombed Friday morning a locality on Ki'linochchi Paranthan Road killing another herd of cows. SLAF fighter jets continued bombardment on Thursday and Friday while the Sri Lanka Army stepped up artillery attacks on several fronts. SLAF bombers hit 4 times a civilian settlement in Mayilvaakanapuram in Visvumadu Friday around 5:30 p.m.

There were no civilian casualties reported in SLAF bombardment on Friday.

At least 10 cows were killed Friday in Paranthan.

85 cows were killed on Monday when the SLAF bombed a Convent and Multi Purpose Cooperative Society buildings on Paranthan Mullaiththeevu Road.

The SLAF used cluster bombs according to eyewitnesses on Monday.

Jet said...



moda army artillery shells hit Kilinochchi Hospital

Thoughtful Guy said...

peelam is full of cows......