Sunday, 29 March 2009

Sunday Column - LTTE uses SA-18 SAMs

SAM attack

Last week, two SLAF Bell-212s sustained minor damages when they were fired upon from the ‘No Fire Zone’ whilst evacuating casualties. The SAMs that hit the Bells are belived to be SA -18 missiles. LTTE is in possession of ten SA - 18 bought for US$ 900,000 using four offshore accounts.

Akurassa suspect

The Colombo LTTE intel leader was captured a few weeks ago, upon interrogation, he identified the Akurassa bomb suspect and he confessed that the suicide Black Tiger was trained by himself a few years ago in Mankulam. We will not reveal identities for security reasons.

The week ahead

Meanwhile SLA has entered another week with high hopes. The hope started becoming reality during the last couple of days, civilians are trickling in steadily. EFT estimates 5,000+ civilians to flow into cleared areas during the next few days. Also as a result of the LTTE top hierarchy currently under attack by SLA, the LTTE is using their saved up high tech weaponry, we cannot reveal exactly what these weapons are but the Bell attack gives a taster.

LTTE victim of the credit crunch too

Hedge funds are continuing to feel the full force of the credit crunch, it’s a widely known fact that the LTTE is also getting hammered by credit crunch. During the G20 summit leaders will discuss how to close the loop holes to avoid another credit crunch. They will also close down the legal loop holes which some groups have been exploiting till now to conceal assets. Therefore LTTE has a financial headache to worry about too.

Census conducted at IPD camps

Below are the results of the census carried out during month of March in IDP settlements.


There are some interesting facts to glean by looking at recently conducted census in civilian camps.

Age Groups of respondents

Age 1-10 15%

Age 11-20 14%

Age 21-30 6%

Age 31-40 35%

Age 41-50 17%

Age 51 + 13%

29% of the participants happened to be less than age of 20.

Pro LTTE vs Against LTTE

Against LTTE 17%

Pro LTTE 13%

No Answer 70%

LTTE achievements in past (compared to previous sample)

People who are happy about LTTE achievements
Past 32%
Now 12%


Below are % of some highlighted points. 90% of those now prefer peace.

Former LTTE carders 1.0%
Full time supporters 3.0%
Weapon Trained 85.0%
People who think they need separate Tamil Eelam 0.8%
Peace 90%

Over 50% of the sample did not want to say anything due to the fear of safety of relatives / friends in No Fire Zone (NFZ)

Total Number of Samples 1200
Did not want to say anything 696 (58%)

What do civilians think about SLA hospitatlity

99% agreed army treated them well but they are not satisfied about the food
98% did not expect SLA to treat them this well

More than 50% told that SLA woud do something terrible to them from they heard about the SLA

SA-18

EFT have managed to find a few details about SA-18 for our readers.

Ref: http://www.fas.org/man/dod-101/sys/missile/row/sa-18.htm

The SA-18 GROUSE (Igla 9K38) is an improved variant in the the SA-7 & SA-14 series of manportable SAMs. As with the earlier SA-14, the SA-18 uses of a similar thermal battery/gas bottle, and the SA-18 has the same 2 kilogram high-explosive warhead fitted with a contact and grazing fuse. But the missile of entirely new design with substantially improved range and speed,. The new seeker and aerodynamic improvements extend its effective range, and its higher speed enables it to be used against faster targets. The SA-18 has a maximum range of 5200 meters and a maximum altitude of 3500 meters. The 9M39 missile SA-18 employs an IR guidance system using proportional convergence logic. The new seeker offers better protection against electro-optical jammers; the probability of kill against an unprotected fighter is estimated at 30-48%, and the use of IRCM jammers only degrades this to 24-30%.


Maximum effective range 5200 meters
altitude, (m) 10-3500
Guidance mode passive IR homing
emplace/displace time 13 sec


EFT

18 comments:

puka said...

"two SLAF Bell-212s sustained minor damages" "SAMs that hit the Bells"
- Mahen if actually SAMs hit the Bells, how they escape by only receiving "Minor" damages?

Mahen said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Mahen said...

Puka,

Its not the first time SLAF Bells and Mi-24s have survived SAM attacks, I suggest you do some research before posing silly questions.

Mahen said...

Navindran,

Stop comparing Singapore and Sri Lanka you idiot. Singapore is about 700 sq kms with 5 million population, Sri Lanka is 66,000 sq kms, with close to 20 million population. Try and understand some basic facts about geography before you compare economics. Singapore is a city state, Sri Lanka is a country. With a city state the size of a cricket pitch you can do all sorts for improvements and innovations in a short space of time, with a country the size of ours the task is complicated and your peelamists monkeys make that task even more difficult.

By the way, the only reason we let you post here is that other people can laugh at your soap box economic predictions. You are the "bite" of this blog.

The Sri Lanka economy will collapse, so what! When that happens all the people will pick up a shovel and dig up the earth and grow our own food. We might take some pity and shove up some of the vegetables up your ass too.

silentknight said...

Mahen,

the Bell's actually took the hits?
i was under the impression that they evaded the SAM's

Sujeewa Kokawala said...

Mahen,

If you go by the looser Navindran SL economy would have collapsed every month in past two years.

His list is endless. I has the case of an asteroid hitting Colombo. I am sure his head must be heated up due to constant brainstorming for possible failures. It is a great relief to dump some in the blogs. Navindran should write 21st century book of Nostre Damus.

We spare Navindran for his innocent fantasy. So we do not hurt his feelings. Sometime back someone introduced the word "Navindran" to Oxford Dicktionary as a verb and noun for daydream.

||::CeylonDefence::|| said...

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Beez said...

Mahen..., Dont lie abt Bell 212...,
SAMs didn go anywhere near it....lol

Navindran said...

Senior Economist Says Credibility of Central Bank is Eroded
By Namini Wijedasa
http://transcurrents.com/tc/2009/03/senior_economist_says_credibil.html#more

Special thanks to the central banker of sri lanka. You too have played a crucial part in the independence of Eelam. I guess there are inteligence within the Sri Lankans to realise his folly. However defencewire or their boys will get them shot dead. Punnaku production is the biggest contributor to their economy.

Navindran said...

Another LTTE propaganda article. Sri lanka will lead world growth as per mahindha mama.

Twin crises hit Sri Lankan Economy
http://www.sundayobserver.lk/2009/03/29/bus02.asp

Navindran said...

Mahen so sad. You have accept the collapse of your country. Singapore was worst off the Sri Lanka when it started. Today its much better off. Singapore is multi racial just like Sri Lanka. However in terms of size and pularity its comparable to Malaysia. You know the best part, Singapore split just like eelam on racial grounds. After that nobody will waste time of your stupid country.

Navindran said...

Another LTTE propaganda

http://www.asianews.it/index.php?l=en&art=14851
Sri Lanka apprehensive over bailout package from the International Monetary Fund
The Central Bank of Colombo is intervening to halt the devaluation of the Sri Lankan rupee. The government is negotiating financing intended to revive the country's economy.


Colombo (AsiaNews) - In anticipation of a decision from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on the 1.9 billion dollar loan requested by the government of Colombo, the Sri Lankan rupee (LKR) has been seesawing at the mercy of the financial markets.

The Central Bank of Colombo has intervened to halt the devaluation of the currency, which has been weakened by greater demand for dollars and by a selloff in shares of John Keells Holdings, the largest publicly traded company on the island, which in one day has seen trading valued at 1.9 billion LKR, equal to 12 million euros.

The future of Sri Lanka's currency and economy deepens on the decision of the International Monetary Fund. The government of Mahinda Rajapaksa is negotiating a bailout package with the IMF, intended to revive the country's economy.

The markets are awaiting an agreement, but Caroline Atkinson, head of the external relations department at the IMF, says: "We don't have any date as to the conclusion of those discussions or their likely bringing to the IMF Board, and we don’t have any information yet on how much Sri Lanka will be requiring from the Fund."

(Melani Manel Perera contributed to this report)

Navindran said...

Blog owner I plead with you. These people are blaming the UNP in 1977 for the economic collapse. THE TRUTH IS THE THAT KNOWING THE LTTE WILL ATTACK IN 1983, THEY DESTROYED THE ECONOMY. JUST LIKE SOME FOOLS HERE BELIEVE THAT WITHOUT THE LTTE SRI LANKA'S ECONOMY WILL FLOURISH. HELP HELP SRI LANKA IS IN FULL COLLAPSE. ONE MORE RABBIT OUT OF THE HAT. MUST ALWAYS BLAME OTHERS FOR YOUR FAILURES. UNFORTUNATELY OBAMA ACCEPTED THAT BOTH DEMOCRATS AND REPUBLICANS WERE RESPONSIBLE FOR THEIR ECONOMY.


http://www.lankaweb.com/news/items09/290309-5.html
How the IMF Swindles Sri Lanka’s Foreign Exchange
By Garvin Karunaratne, Ph.D.(Michigan State University)

Navindran said...

http://www.lankatimes.com/fullstory.php?id=15994

HELP HELP ANOTHER JVP UPRISING COMMING. KEEP YOUR SISTERS READY FOR THE ARMY RAMPAGE IN THE SOUTH.



Export ceramics industry on verge of collapse

The export oriented ceramic industry pleaded to the Government to loosen its tight policies on the industry with the officials claiming that the US dollar 4.8 million industry is at the brink of collapse.

Dankotuwa Porcelain Chairman/Managing Director, Sunil Wijesinha warned that the additional tax Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) on the ceramic industry has created a crisis of survival for the industry.

According to the officials, LPG price supplied by a leading LPG importer in the country depends on the Saudi Aramco prices. However, from January this year, the government had imposed a Special Government Levy (SGL) plus taxes on LPG imports. Meanwhile, in February, government had further increased SGL to Rs. 27.50. This has increased the price of LPG by 32 percent.


High Liquefied Petroleum Prices

The four main leading ceramic companies in Sri Lanka hoped that the government would reduce the SGL on LP gas before the ceramic industry collapses.

According to Managing Director of Lanka Wall Tile Ltd and Lanka Walltiles Pvt Ltd, Mahendra Jayasekara, introduction of SGL has increased local LP gas prices resulting in reduction of competition for the industry.

"This has increased our unit price. Sri Lanka is at a disadvantage, since our competitors have their own LPG resources and they also receive government subsidies, which we do not have," he said.

Jayasekara also added that the industry had to pay around Rs. 15 million per month for its energy consumption and it could not continue to pay such a large amount.

Industrialists also added that Banks and state institutions are not willing to give credit for the industry, and it could not find adequate funds to finance working capital for its existence.

Meanwhile, Wijesinha said that distortion in LPG and diesel prices have resulted in a severe negative impact on the local ceramic industry when competing with global markets.

"Artificial tax burden and distorted price mechanism for energy can cause irreparable damages."

Industrialists also added that ceramic customers are paying a premium price for Sri Lankan products due to its quality but in future due to the global economic turmoil, many of the customers would rethink placing orders in Sri Lanka.

"The world economic crisis has already effected global sales and this will be felt in Sri Lanka when we run out of export orders," Chairman/Managing Director of Midaya Ceramic Co. Ltd, D Warnakulasooriya explained.

Sri Lanka Ceramic Council also warned that due to the prevailing economic environment exports sales will decline and the industry was looking at other option if the government assists it.


Warning of unemployment

According to Sri Lanka Ceramic Council (SLCC) there are more than 5000 persons directly employed in the industry, of which many have undergone specialized training and had the expertise in ceramic manufacturing.

They warned that if the current trend continues many employed in the industry would lose their jobs increasing the unemployment rate.

Mahendra Jayasekara said ceramic companies will be compelled to curtail production in the near future until it reduces stocks to an acceptable level, "this will result in the reduction of the work force."


No need of a stimulus package, but give relief

According to SLCC, the economy over the last five years has changed dramatically. Companies have had to adapt quickly to survive. Current business strategies are planned for months not years, the Council explained.

"The conditions of the stimulus package do not take into consideration the current economic backdrop and the effect it has had on the market. This will be difficult for companies to benefit from a stimulus package," Warnakulasooriya said.

Jayasekara noted that the main qualifying criteria of having to maintain 90 percent of the previous year’s exports turnover is very unrealistic.

"The value of exports has to be equal to the corresponding quarter of the previous year. However, the volume of exports declined since October 2008 due to the global recession," he added.

He also said that Sri Lanka exports to Australia, Canada, Europe and the UK in their respective currencies. However, due to the global crisis these currencies depreciated sharply against the US Dollar and Sri Lankan Rupee since September 2008.

"This resulted in a two way scenario, the export turnover has reduced compared to the corresponding quarters of the previous years."

Meanwhile, SLCC also requested the government to devalue the Rupee in order to safe guard the export industry in the country.

It noted that the US dollar is the main currency for the industry exports and by having a higher US Dollar to Sri Lanka Rupee exchange rate, the export becomes cheaper, and the industry will be able to get better prices for its products.

"We request the Government, therefore not to interfere with the US Dollar movements and allow it to fluctuate based on market requirements," it said.

Source :Island

Navindran said...

MAHEN LOOK BELOW, IT SAYS PEOPLE CANNOT FARM THEIR LAND DUE TO ECONOMIC COLLAPSE.

http://www.asianews.it/index.php?l=en&art=14758&size=A

Sri Lanka suffering from the global crisis, government in denial
by Melani Manel Perera
Women and children are the hardest hit. The endless war between the army and Tamil rebels is making matters worse; so are decades of waste and corruption which have crippled the country. Here is an interview with sociologist Sunil Ranasinghe.


Colombo (AsiaNews) – Sri Lanka is not being spared by the worldwide economic crisis. In an interview with AsiaNews Sri Lankan sociologist Sunil Ranasinghe confirms that the global recession is having a major impact on the country. In order to continue its war against Tamil Tiger rebels the government is downplaying the problem, accusing those who talk about crisis of deceiving the population. In fact “we are in the midst of a social, economic and political crisis.”

What are the reality and myths of the economic crisis in Sri Lanka?

We are trying to understand the extent, roots and nature of the crisis at the global and local levels. Academics and activists are trying to interpret a crisis that is spreading like wildfire, affecting the rich and poor alike. But the Sri Lankan government and the head of the treasury are saying that there is no economic collapse in the country related to the global crisis, and are criticising economists and the opposition for deceiving the nation on this issue.

If that were true why is it that they got the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to give them a loan? Even children know that we live in one world, affected by the same global meltdown that is affecting everybody else, with rapidly rising unemployment and poverty.

How did Sri Lanka avoid this situation? What kind of dispensation do we have that we are not affected? The fact of the matter is that when the financial bubble burst the government asked for a US$ 1.9 billion loan to get out of the current economic quandary.

The IMF closed its bureau in Colombo in 2007, saying that no project was planned in Sri Lanka for the foreseeable future. In fact we are in the midst of a social, economic and political crisis. No one can get away with inventing political myths in order to carry out a brutal war against the nation.

Can you explain the present economic situation in Sri Lanka?

In December 2007 foreign currency reserves stood at US$ 3.4 billion dollars. Today they are down to US$ 1.7 billion, which correspond to three months of imports of food and basic necessities. In the last few years the government wiped out 45 per cent of the country’s reserves in war expenditures.

In its latest financial statement the government said it was going to raise 760 million rupees (US$ 7 million) in taxes, on the back of the population. The government is also expecting some US$ 600 million from the Japan international Bank Corporation to privatise the energy sector. Yet its overdraft on banks and the Bank of Ceylon is for more than 1.6 billion rupees (or about US$ 200 million).

The fact that the president had to call on Sri Lankan expatriates to help out is a sign of the crisis; it is the government and its backers who are deceiving the population.

How much does the past affect the current crisis?

Since 1980 many state-owned companies have been sold as part of the Structural Adjustment Program of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. This was meant to reduce the foreign debts of developing countries accumulated during the Seventies.

Sri Lanka was among the first in Asia to espouse free market economics. Since 1990 the government in Colombo has sold about 100 state corporations to private interests.

Corruption has increased as the nation’s wealth and public resources became tools in the hands of politicians and bureaucrats with total disregard for the interests of the population.

More than a thousand billion rupees have been wasted this way and people have become poorer.

The United States chose to decide their fate in the pursuit of the War on Terror, wasting US$ 35 billion since 9/11. Sri Lanka has increased military spending by billions of rupees, forgetting that half of the population lives below the poverty line.

Women and children are the hardest hit by the crisis. What can be done to avoid it?

With the war still on we cannot deal with the situation faced by many women. Women are half of a population of 20 million. One woman in two lives on 200 rupees a day (US$ 1.80) and many are poor without access to basic social services, treated like human garbage, suffering from hunger and malnutrition. About 45 per cent of pregnant women suffer from anaemia.

Children are not much better off. About 32 per cent are malnourished, and one in three is under weight.

Women are victims of the political system and male chauvinism which violate their basic rights. They are marginalised by the war and the country’s economic and cultural inequalities.

Yet they are the heart of the country’s economy. Out of 600,000 people employed in plantations, half are women who earn about a billion dollars. Out of 280,000 people working in free trade zones, about 75 per cent are young women, generating about US$ 2 billion.

All this money has not however freed women from enslavement and social segregation.

In the past 30 years more than 120,000 Sri Lankans have sent home earnings they made overseas, working as slaves; 65 per cent of them are women, who altogether earn about US$ 2 billion.

Until a few months ago foreign remittances by emigrants were worth more than US$ 3 billion; now they are down to US$ 1.2 billion.

Who destroyed such a women-based economy, the result of women’s toiling, tears and blood?

Women working in plantation are now sitting in front of their homes watching their children go hungry, asking themselves who stole the future. More than 16,000 young female workers have been laid off. What future do they have? More than 10,000 women, who lost their husbands fighting for the army in the last three years, have given up on their land because they cannot farm it because of the war. . . .

Navindran said...

Sharp fall in Sri Lanka tea exports
Mar 5, 2009

COLOMBO (AFP) — Sri Lanka, one of the world's biggest tea exporters, registered a 30 percent drop in overseas sales in January because of a decline in the crop, the Sri Lanka Tea Board said on Thursday.

Sales from tea shipments fell to 6.9 billion rupees (61.37 million dollars) in January, compared to 9.8 billion rupees in the same period a year earlier, official figures showed.

Volumes of tea exports also fell 25 percent to 17.76 million kilograms (39.07 million pounds) in January, over the same month in 2008, the board said.

"We are reeling from twin effects of lower rainfall and a deliberate effort to curtail our own production. This has hit our exports in terms of volumes and earnings," Tea Board chairman Lalith Hettiarachchi told AFP.

Russia and former Soviet republics are the largest markets for Sri Lankan tea, accounting for nearly a fifth of total exports, followed by the Middle East and North Africa.

Sri Lanka benefited from the global commodity boom in early 2008, with export earnings hitting a record 1.23 billion dollars for the full year, up from 1.02 billion dollars in 2007.

Tea output also hit a record 318.47 million kilos, up from 305.2 million kilos produced in 2007.

However, with the onset of the global economic meltdown, prices have collapsed to an average of 2.65 dollars a kilo (1.20 dollars a pound) from record highs of 4.26 dollars a kilo between January and September last year.

Growers have also curbed output at the request of the Tea Board to manage high production costs and maintain quality.

The first signs of a drop in the crop were seen in December when output fell by a third to 19.9 million kilos from 29.5 million kilos in the same month a year earlier, Hettiarachchi said.

He expects production to slow down to just over 300 million kilos this year, partly due to high labour and fertiliser prices.

JWick said...

Prof Navindran's "Model Economy" country Singapore in trouble!!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/7949794.stm

Quotes from above:
"Singapore's prime minister Lee Hsien Loong has warned that his country faces its worst economic crisis since World War II.

Exports from Singapore are falling at their fastest rate since records began, down 24% last month on 2008 figures, and down 35% in January."

"Worst in decades

Trade has driven Singapore's economy throughout its 200 years of existence.

And, says Mr Lee, even record levels of government spending cannot stop the island state sliding into its worst recession in decades.

"Well we're going to have very negative growth this year," Mr Lee said. "

"But perhaps the biggest question hanging over Singapore is what the impact record levels of local unemployment will have on the government's popularity.

There is no political opposition to speak of, and public demonstrations are banned, but people may find other ways to express their discontent if this recession proves to be a prolonged one. "

Ha ha! Where are those Tamil financial experts Navindran has been quoting all the time??

IF WE ALSO BAN PUBLIC DEMONSTRATIONS AND POLITICAL OPPOSITION, WE CAN DO 100 TIMES BETTER THAN SINGAPORE!
NAVINDRAN, TAKE NOTE!